US Election #PredictIt Probability:Vice President Kamala Harris is now leading former President Donald Trump in the PredictIt betting market for who will win the 2024 presidential election.
PredictIt is a large online political prediction market, often called a "stock market for politics."
Kalmala Harris taking the "lead" vs #Trump pic.twitter.com/0FvZiPcceJ
— JC Louw (@jc_louw) August 1, 2024
Harris moved up to beating Trump for the first time on Wednesday. BREAKING: Kamala Harris is now the favorite to win the presidency in 2024 according to Predictit betting odds:
Just over a week ago she was at 32% and Trump was at 62%
This has been there greatest comeback I have ever seen. pic.twitter.com/4k292Lung1
— Brian Krassenstein (@krassenstein) August 1, 2024
By Thursday, bets on Trump winning were 50 cents, while Harris was 53 cents.
Mediaite reports, "Harris moved ahead of Trump on the PredictIt betting platform on Wednesday afternoon before the odds settled back into a tie, only for Harris to retake the lead later the evening – leading by five points on Thursday. The shift comes as Harris’ campaign has been gaining momentum in key swing states, with recent polls showing her leading Trump nationally."
The report noted that Trump is still 12 points ahead on the Polymarket betting platform, though that lead is also diminishing.
In 2022, Bloomberg reported that PredictIt co-founder John Phillips credits the prevalence of politicos for why the site so often gets it right.
“Prediction markets function as well as they do and are as accurate as they are … because these markets, like any markets, attract people with superior information,” he said on a podcast in 2016. “In the financial stock market, it’s called inside information.”
