"If you are a Republican, looking at this poll average coming out of Labor Day, you could take some solace too, because Donald Trump is no stranger to this position, being behind come Labor Day in a presidential election," Kornacki said, noting Trump was trailing Hillary Clinton by a five-point average following Labor Day in 2016, though still secured a victory the following November. "In 2020, on average, he was trailing Joe Biden by an even wider margin. And yet didn’t come back to win, but he came back to come close, Trump did, in the Electoral College." WATCH: MSNBC's data guru Kornacki concedes Harris is polling lower than Biden at thisMSNBC's Steve Kornacki warned that although Vice President Kamala Harris showed a slight edge in some recent polls, former President Donald Trump posed a risk of winning the November election.
During a Tuesday broadcast on the network, Kornacki cited a recent polling average that showed Harris with a three-point lead on Trump with roughly two months until Election Day. Kornacki said Democrats would take the poll favorably in comparison to President Joe Biden's polling against Trump, which showed the inverse.
Kornacki warned that although Trump was in fact behind in the polls, he was historically in a favorable spot when compared with his past two presidential elections.
point in the last election and adds: “Trump has run from behind before.. this is not unfamiliar territory for Donald Trump.” pic.twitter.com/faygZZjf4A
— TV News Now (@TVNewsNow) September 3, 2024
Last month, CNN's data analyst Henry Enten similarly pointed out Trump's historically underrepresented polling leading up to Election Day.
"The bottom line is this: If you have any idea — if you’re a Kamala Harris fan and you want to rip open the champagne bottle, pop that cork, do not do it," Enten said at the time. "Donald Trump is very much in this race. If we have a polling shift like we’ve seen in prior years, from now until the final result, Donald Trump would actually win."
"I’m not saying that’s going to happen, but I am saying that he is very much in this ballgame based upon where he is right now, and compare that to where he was in prior years," he warned.
Fellow polling analyst Nate Silver also noted Trump's underestimated polling could prove victorious for him this November.
"One, we have three more months to go. There will be more surprises. And two, the polls have been wrong before. In both the last two general elections, they underestimated Trump," he said, noting that Harris had a slight advantage in the polls at the time, all within the margin of error.
