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Emerson Poll Shows Trump Leading Biden in All Six Key Battleground States

The survey was sponsored by Democrats for the Next Generation, which boosts liberal politicians, including California Governor Gavin Newsom.

Published: July 8, 2024
  |   By Cassandra MacDonald
Emerson Poll Shows Trump Leading Biden in All Six Key Battleground States

An Emerson poll sponsored by a Democrat organization found that former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in all six key battleground states.


These states are key for determining the 2024 election and were polled following Biden's widely panned debate performance.

The pollsters found Trump leading by at least three points in all states other than Michigan, where he leads by just one.


  • Pennsylvania – Trump: 48% (+5) Biden: 43%

  • Wisconsin – Trump: 47% (+3) Biden: 44% 

  • Michigan – Trump: 45% (+1) Biden: 44%

  • Nevada – Trump: 47% (+6) Biden: 41%

  • Arizona – Trump: 46% (+4) Biden: 42% 

  • Georgia – Trump: 47% (+5) Biden: 42%


The Washington Examiner reports:
Trump's lead over the president in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada ranged between 1 and 6 points. The poll showed Trump in the best position in Nevada, while he inched past Biden in Michigan. Most of the contests were inside the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3 points.

Democrats for the Next Generation, an organization promoting the next crop of Democratic leaders, worked with Emerson College to conduct the poll between June 30 to July 2. Polling was conducted in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada, with 1,000 respondents in each state.


The survey was sponsored by Democrats for the Next Generation, which boosts politicians, including California Governor Gavin Newsom — who has long been rumored to be a possible replacement nominee.

A round of polling conducted in December in seven key swing states also found Trump leading Biden in every single one.

The polls found Trump would beat Biden in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.


Across all swing state polls, Trump led Biden 47 to 42 percent.

Biden “is making no gains among groups he is going to need to pull off a victory next year,” Eli Yokley, US politics analyst at Morning Consult, told Bloomberg at the time.

“Instead of worrying about polls a year out, our campaign is focused on earning every vote and highlighting the stakes between the extreme MAGA agenda and President Biden’s popular agenda that has delivered for young people, and Americans of all ages,” said Daniel Wessel, a Biden campaign spokesman, in a statement to the newspaper.

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