According to a new survey, Senator Ted Cruz narrowly leads his Democratic opponent, Congressman Colin Allred.
The data suggests the Texas senate race could become increasingly tense in the final months before the 2024 election.
University of Houston’s School of Public Affairs and Texas Southern University’s School of Public Affairs asked 1,484 likely voters which candidate they plan to support in November.
The results indicate Cruz leads Allred 47% to 44%. At least 3% of those polled said they plan to support Ted Brown, the Libertarian candidate, while 6% said they were undecided.
The three-point gap between the Republican incumbent and Allred indicates the Democrats have made progress among Texans. In January, survey data showed Cruz led his opponent by nine points.
Voters who indicated they planned to vote for Cruz appeared slightly more confident. In total, 7% of Cruz voters said they might change their minds, while 8% of Allred’s supporters said they may change their minds.
Most voters who plan to vote for President Donald Trump in November (88%) also plan to support Cruz for reelection. Similarly, most voters who support President Joe Biden (94%) plan to support Allred.
Of voters who plan to back Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., 50% say they will vote for Allred in the Texas Senate race, while 15% will vote for Cruz.
“Cruz, like Trump and Biden, is well-known to Texas likely voters, with only 3% not knowing enough to have an opinion about him, one way or another,” notes the report from the University of Houston. “In sharp contrast, one in four (23%) likely November 2024 likely voters don’t know enough about Allred to have an opinion about him.”
The survey was conducted between June 20 and July 1 and has a margin of error of 2.5%.
Cruz raised over $12.6 million for his reelection campaign between April and June. During the same period, Allred raised $10.5 million, per The Hill.
Allred, a former NFL player, joined the United States Congress in January 2019. He won his party’s senate primary in March and has tried to present himself as the candidate who will work across the aisle. The 41-year-old notably broke with Democrats in January and signed “a Republican resolution criticizing the Biden administration’s immigration policies,” per PBS News. The congressman has avoided commenting on whether Biden should leave the presidential race.
“I know that many conversations about next steps are happening and I have not been a part of those conversations,” Allred said, per the Texas Tribune. “I remain laser-focused on listening to Texans about what matters most to them and defeating Ted Cruz. We already have one political pundit in this race who spends hours and hours podcasting about this instead of serving Texans.”
Cruz is looking to secure a third term in the U.S. Senate.
“Since the day I was first elected to the Senate twelve years ago, my job has been to fight for thirty million Texans,” he told Texas Monthly in May. “I’ve been proud to lead the fight against every disastrous policy that the radical left has tried to impose on the state of Texas. I’ve been proud to lead the fight against Democrats’ open-border policies.”
Early voting in Texas begins on Oct. 21.
