This dramatic shift marks a complete reversal from recent months, during which Harris consistently trailed Trump in hypothetical head-to-head matchups and as the veep on a ticket with President Joe Biden. Following a disastrous debate performance at the end of June, Biden abruptly withdrew from the race, leaving Harris as the presumptive nominee. Her status as the Democratic standard-bearer for this year’s election was cemented over the weekend after she secured enough delegates through a virtual roll call, making her the first woman of color to head a major party ticket. Harris now holds a roughly two-point lead over Trump in national polling, according to Race to the White House, a top election forecaster, which called the most races correctly during the 2022 election cycle. However, as U.S. presidents are elected through the Electoral College rather than the popular vote, national polling does not necessarily indicate a potential win in November. The Electoral College map shows that if the election were held today, Harris would likely secure 275 electoral votes compared to Trump’s 262. Two weeks ago, the same analysis showed Trump leading in electoral polling by 305 to 209. Voter sentiment toward the vice president has been rather pessimistic, with her approval rating consistently remaining below 40 percent over the past two years. At this time last month, just 36.4 percent of Americans held a favorable view of her. Daniel P. Franklin, an associate professor of political science at Georgia State University, says it is not yet clear that Harris is ahead in the Electoral College, arguing that “the race is still essentially tied” in key battleground states. However, he acknowledges her recent surge, noting in a statement to SCNR that two main factors are driving her rise. “One, despite all of his accomplishments, President Biden was a drag on a ticket that should have had a substantial incumbency advantage,” Franklin explained. “Now, ironically, the incumbency advantage gets to manifest itself without the President even being on the ticket.” Franklin added, “Trump's success was always basically the result of his ‘schtick.’ Now, after eight years, because of his age, obvious infirmities, and limited range, the Trump act has gone stale. If he were a television show, he would be canceled.” The abrupt shift in Harris’s popularity has left other observers puzzled, considering that since Biden's departure from the race, she has declined interviews and press conferences and does not list any policy priorities on her campaign website. “Kamala's polling bump isn't based on people ‘getting to know her,’ she hasn't done a single interview, and has staff announcing new positions that are the opposite of everything she's ever said and done,” Matt Whitlock, a former senior advisor to the National Republican Senatorial Committee, wrote in a post on X. ‘Getting to know her’ will bring her numbers back down.”In a notable turn of events, Vice President Kamala Harris has now overtaken former President Donald Trump in both national and Electoral College polling, signaling the potential for her to win this year’s presidential election.
What?
Kamala's polling bump isn't based on people "getting to know her," she hasn't done a single interview, and has staff announcing new positions that are the opposite of everything she's ever said and done.
"Getting to know her" will bring her numbers back down. https://t.co/9hoTE5KaBy
— Matt Whitlock (@mattdizwhitlock) August 6, 2024 An X user named Francisco Vandalay expressed similar sentiments: “Kamala Harris was the most unpopular VP of all time. Now we are being gas lit by the MSM that she is our Messiah? Give me a break. Her poll numbers are a bubble that are going to get popped by reality. There’s a reason she still hasn’t given a live interview.”
REALITY CHECK: Kamala Harris was the most unpopular VP of all time. Now we are being gas lit by the MSM that she is our Messiah? Give me a break. Her poll numbers are a bubble that are going to get popped by reality. There’s a reason she still hasn’t given a live interview. Despite such criticisms, political experts suggest there are valid reasons for Harris' recent surge in the polls. “I can only state the obvious: she has provided energy for the Dems; she is forward-looking and articulate; and Biden is no longer the issue: Trump is,” Alex Keyssar, a professor of history and social policy at the Harvard Kennedy School, said in a statement to SCNR. “To many, her views are generally known to be liberal, progressive; and for others, it is her presence, her person, that seems to matter right now,” he added. David Doherty, a professor of political science at Loyola University Chicago, says the most obvious explanation for Harris’ upward trajectory in polling is that Biden was a weak candidate. “He shows clear signs of aging — most notably in his terrible debate performance — and a huge share of the public viewed him as too old to be effective,” he told SCNR in an email. “Kamala Harris does not have this problem.” Doherty added that presidential campaigns typically take longer than the two to three weeks the Harris campaign has had to craft a platform and messaging strategy. He noted that although the campaign is still in its early stages, it has launched smoothly. “In this period of time, she has managed to unite the party behind her, choose a running mate, and raise absolutely massive amounts of money,” said Doherty, adding that he believes policy positions and press conferences will be forthcoming over the next few weeks.
— Francisco Vandalay (@f_vandalay) August 3, 2024
