Polling last year revealed that black support for President Joe Biden had significantly dropped. Despite Biden having 87 percent black support in 2020, survey data from The New York Times and Siena College showed that 22 percent of black voters in six key battleground states said they were backing former President Donald Trump in the 2024 election. New polling, however, shows the exodus is not just limited to the presidential contest — record numbers of black voters are stating on-the-record they no longer identify with the Democratic Party. The same can be said of Hispanic voters. Over the past three years, as inflation, crime, and illegal migration have become prominent issues, the Democratic Party’s lead over Republicans in black Americans’ party preferences has shrunk by nearly 20 points, according to the latest survey from Gallup. Democrats’ lead among Hispanic adults has slid nearly as much, which leaves the party holding only a modest edge with both groups, Gallup says. Now, just two-thirds of black adults (66 percent) say they identify as Democrat, or lean that way, while 19 percent identify as or lean Republican. Whether low minority support in polling could translate into a lack of turnout at the ballot box is not necessarily theoretical. During the 2022 midterms, there was a 10-percentage-point decline in black voter turnout compared to the 2018 midterms. As of last summer, Democratic Party insiders were sounding the alarm over the loss of black support and setting the stage to blame black Americans — black men in particular — for a Biden 2024 loss. Not even half of Hispanic adults (47 percent) now identity as a Democrat or lean Democratic, according to Gallup. “The data show the Democratic Party retaining advantages among people of color and young adults, but in 2023 it was in a weaker position among these groups than at any point in the past quarter century,” said Gallup. “Democrats’ reduced support among Black and Hispanic adults should be especially concerning for the party, given Republicans’ continued strength among White adults, who remain the majority of the electorate.”Historically, Democrats have typically garnered black and Hispanic voters by margins exceeding 90 percent.
