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Poll: Trump Could Lose More Than Half of Swing State Voters If Convicted Of A Felony

Analysts predict convictions in at least two criminal cases

Published: January 31, 2024
  |   By Adrian Norman
Poll: Trump Could Lose More Than Half of Swing State Voters If Convicted Of A Felony

More than half of voters in swing states would not vote for former President Donald Trump if he were convicted of a crime, according to new survey data from Bloomberg News/Morning Consult.


This marks the third major poll in recent months showing significant voter attrition should Trump be found guilty of one or more counts in any of the four criminal proceedings he is facing this year.


In August, a Reuters/Ipsos poll showed that 45 percent of Republicans would not vote for Trump in the 2024 election if convicted, though he gained some support when the same poll was updated in December.


The latest Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll surveying swing state voters found that 53 percent of voters in key battleground states would be unwilling to vote for the former president if he is found guilty of a crime. That figure grew to 55 percent if he would be sentenced to prison.


These latest figures are a rare bright spot for the campaign of President Joe Biden, who for months now has been getting pummeled by Trump in nearly every major poll. Numbers that indicate peeling support for Trump in the wake of a conviction could also be why Biden’s team is now eager for Trump to win the Republican nomination; they have grown increasingly confident that Trump will be convicted in at least one case.


Morning Consult Vice President Caroline Bye says Trump would lose one out of every five of his 2020 voters if he’s found guilty. “The base is evolving and the base is changing,” she told Bloomberg. “But there are certainly loyal Trump voters who will continue to vote for Trump.”


The poll surveyed 4,956 registered voters in seven swing states, and was conducted Jan. 16 to Jan. 22, after the Iowa caucuses and before the New Hampshire primary.

List of Criminal Trials:



  • January 6 case in Washington D.C. (March 4) — Trump has been hit with four felony charges stemming from his alleged role in the riot at the U.S. Capitol in 2021. Two charges of disrupting an official proceeding, one charge of a scheme to defraud the U.S., and one charge of conspiracy to deprive a citizen a right guaranteed by law.

  • Hush-money case in New York (March 25, but could be delayed) — Trump faces 34 criminal counts for an alleged payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels to cover up an alleged affair.

  • Classified Documents Case (May 20, but could be delayed) — Trump has been charged with 40 counts, including willful retention of national defense information under the Espionage Act and conspiracy to obstruct justice.

  • Georgia Election Meddling Case (Tentatively Proposed for August 5) — Trump has been charged with 13 counts under the Racketeering Influenced and Corrupt Organizations (RICO) Act, including racketeering, forgery, perjury, filing false documents, and making false statements.


Conservative television host Megyn Kelly believes that because of the likelihood of a biased jury in notoriously progressive, anti-Trump New York, the hush money case is almost certain to result in a conviction. “He has zero chance of winning,” she said this week on her podcast.


Former federal prosecutor Glenn Kirschner has stated that Trump will most likely be convicted in the classified documents case because, explaining to MSNBC host Katie Phang, “that frankly poses an ongoing threat to our nation’s security.”

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