Since the attack on the U.S. airbase in Jordan, both crude and bent crude prices have risen slightly, which could be an early warning sign for President Joe Biden. Days before the attack, new survey data from YouGov and the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) show that a majority of Americans would hold Biden responsible for higher domestic gas prices if the conflict in the Middle East widens. Among respondents who voted for Biden in 2020, 52 percent say they would hold Biden responsible if the Middle East war expands and gas prices surge above $5 per gallon. Just 34 percent said they would not. "This is a very large group of people who voted for Biden in 2020 and would hold him responsible for a rise in gasoline prices resulting from a widening Middle East war," Mark Weisbrot, economist and Co-Director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, said in a joint statement about the recent poll. "This could easily make the difference in a close election. If a small percentage — even about 1 in 20 — of this large group of voters were to stay home as a result of their dissatisfaction with the rise in gasoline prices, that could be enough to tip the election," said Weisbrot. An estimated 12 percent of global oil travels through the Red Sea. Several major shipping companies have already halted transportation routes through the Red Sea, which could potentially lead to oil disruptions over the coming months, according to Euronews Business. Shipping companies began re-routing vessels last month after Houthi rebels began attacking cargo ships in the region in a bid to pressure Israel to cease its military response to last fall’s Hamas terror attack. Goldman Sachs strategists estimate that oil flows through the Bab El Mandeb Strait at the southern end of the Red Sea have dropped by 1.2 million barrels per day since the attacks began. An overwhelming majority (71 percent) say that increased gas prices due to an expanded war would impact the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, while just 12 percent say they don’t believe it would. "The 2024 election could very easily be tipped by just a very small fraction of Biden voters who become upset about high gasoline prices, blame the president, and choose not to come out and vote," Justin Talbot Zorn, a Senior Advisor at CEPR, said in the joint statement.Following an unmanned aerial drone strike that killed three U.S. servicemembers and injured at least 34 others, gas prices are seeing an uptick.
