However, new data contradicts these assertions, showing that crime in urban areas is actually surging. The 2023 National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) reveals that the overall rate of violent crime has not fallen and remains statistically unchanged from 2019 levels. The NCVS, conducted by the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) and administered by the Census Bureau, surveys approximately 240,000 individuals from 150,000 households annually. The survey collects data on nonfatal personal crimes and household property crimes, whether reported or unreported to the police. For each incident, the NCVS gathers information about the offender (including demographics), the circumstances of the crime (such as time, location, and weapon use), whether the crime was reported, reasons for reporting or not reporting, and the victim's interactions with the criminal justice system. According to the latest data, violent crime in urban areas rose by 40 percent between 2019 and 2023. Urban property crime — including burglary, trespassing, motor vehicle theft, and other forms of household theft — also climbed, rising from 176.1 per 1,000 households in 2022 to 192.3 per 1,000 in 2023. Despite these rising numbers, the overall rate of crime reported to police has remained relatively stable. However, the reporting of certain crimes has significantly decreased. In 2023, 55 percent of violent crimes and 70 percent of property crimes went unreported. The number of robberies reported to the police dropped by 22 percent between 2022 and 2023, while the percentage of motor vehicle thefts reported decreased from 81 percent to 72 percent during the same period. These findings contrast sharply with data from the FBI, which has often been cited to support the narrative that crime in the U.S. is dramatically declining. Jeffrey H. Anderson, president of the American Main Street Initiative and former director of the BJS, argued in a recent op-ed that the NCVS findings are far more reliable than the FBI's statistics for several reasons:Over the past year, numerous reports in the corporate press have claimed that crime rates across the U.S. have steadily declined.
“The FBI publishes data only on crimes reported to the police, which means it doesn’t capture most crimes,” Anderson wrote. He added that the huge urban crime spike follows the summer of 2020, when many cities across the U.S. introduced lax policing policies after the death of George Floyd. "The newly released figures don’t show this urban crime spike abating,” Anderson added. “If we insist on rerunning the failed social experiments of the 1960s and ’70s, we should expect similar results.”
