Less than five months out from the 2020 election, former President Donald Trump maintains a strong polling advantage over incumbent President Joe Biden.
This is despite Trump having been recently convicted by a New York court on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records.
So strong is Trump’s performance in national and swing state polling that The Economist now gives him a 75 percent chance of winning the election.
“Our model is updated every day and combines state and national polls with economic indicators to predict the election results across the country,” The Economist explains in its latest presidential election forecast, which comes at a time when Biden’s approval rating has reached the lowest level of any president in modern history. The Economist now says Donald Trump has a 75% chance of winning the 2024 election.https://t.co/IOlqSrpax0
— Adrian Norman (@AdrianNormanDC) June 17, 2024
The publication ran more than 10,000 election simulations to work out probable vote totals and concluded that Trump has a three-in-four chance of victory, while Biden has a one-in-four chance.
Six states with a combined 77 electoral votes, The Economist noted, will be crucial in determining the outcome of this year’s presidential election: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
A total of 538 electoral votes are up for grabs, with a candidate needing at least 270 to secure the White House.
In the months prior to Trump’s conviction, polling showed that his conviction on a single felony count could cause him to lose as much as 45 percent support among Republicans nationwide and 53 percent of voters in key battleground states.
A POLITICO poll of 1,027 adults conducted from June 7-9 found that 33 percent were less likely to back Trump post-conviction, compared to 17 percent who said a conviction made it more likely for them to vote for the former president. A plurality of respondents, 38 percent, said the conviction would have no impact on their decision to support Trump.
Washington insiders, however, still fear that Trump’s odds of winning are exceptionally strong and are quietly weighing the costs of doing a Biden “candidate swap,” pushing him off the ticket for a younger, more energetic alternative. In 2020, Trump won Iowa by +8 points.
Now, Iowa’s best pollster shows him up +18 in the state – which is bad news for Biden in more competitive Midwestern states, like Wisconsin and Michigan.
👉🏻 https://t.co/SmqLoDR2sg https://t.co/gPVkOy3Sop
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) June 17, 2024
According to a new report from Daily Mail, Democratic strategists are war-gaming scenarios where Biden is replaced as the nominee. In order for that to materialize, unnamed sources say four high-ranking Democrats – former President Barack Obama, former President Bill Clinton, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer – would have to sign off on the plan.
All four would also be required to force Biden to drop out of the race.
And part of the reason Democrats are holding an online "virtual" nomination is to "ensure a more controlled process should the party decide to select a replacement candidate," the outlet said, citing Democratic strategists.
