The Republican challenger in Montana’s contentious United States Senate leads the incumbent Democrat, according to a new poll.
The race is one of five predicted to determine which political party will control the Senate next year.
AARP released its latest poll on Thursday indicating Tim Sheehy leads Senator Jon Tester 49 percent to 41 percent. At least five percent of the state’s voters plan to support a third-party candidate and four percent are undecided. Sheehy leads Tester 51 percent to 41 percent if other parties are eliminated from the ballot.
In particular, older voters are planning to support Sheehy over the incumbent Democrat 55 percent to 39 percent. Voters ages 50 and older represent an “outsized portion of the electorate” notes the pollster. Older voters cast 56 percent of all Montana ballots in 2020 and 65 percent in 2022.
“Voters over age 50 are the biggest and most enthusiastic voting bloc this election, and their votes will make a difference in the U.S. Senate race,” said Tim Summers, the State Directo of AARP Montana, in a statement. “The candidate who wants to win in November should focus on the issues older voters care about most, from protecting Social Security and Medicare to supporting family caregivers.”
Sheehy is a former Navy SEAL who graduated from the Naval Academy in 2008. He and his wife settled in Montana in 2014 after they both left the military. The couple runs a 20,000-acre cattle ranch and have four children. Sheehy was awarded a Bronze Star and a Purple Heart by Montana Congressman Ryan Zinke in 2015.
The Navy veteran founded Bridger Aerospace, an aerial firefighting company, and Ascent Vision Technology after moving to the Bozeman area and sold both companies in 2020 for $50 million, per the Montana Free Press. His bid for the Senate marks the entrepreneur’s first foray into politics.
President Donald Trump endorsed Sheehy in February.
“He will stand tall in the fight against the Radical Left Democrats, who are Destroying our country,” wrote Trump in a post on Truth Social.
Tester is currently serving his third term in the U.S. Senate. He and his wife live on the same land that was homesteaded by his grandparents in 1912. He took over managing the Tester farm in 1978 after graduating from college. He also taught music at an elementary school before being elected to the Big Sandy School Board. He was elected to the Montana Senate in 1998.
Tester declined to endorse Vice President Kamala Harris after President Joe Biden ended his bid for reelection.
"I'm not going to endorse for the presidential [candidate] and I will tell you why, because two reasons," Tester said at a press conference in July, per Newsweek. “No. 1, I'm focused on my race. And No. 2, folks want to nationalize this race, and this isn't about national politics, this is about Montana. It's about making sure we have a Montanan back in Washington, D.C., representing Montana values.”
According to NBC News:Each candidate is attempting to frame the other as a phony.
Sheehy and the GOP present Tester, 67, as a creature of Washington who pledged to change the culture but became one of the Senate’s top recipients of campaign cash from lobbyists.
…Tester and the Democrats play up the incumbent’s Montana dirt farm roots while emphasizing that Sheehy, 38, is a relative newcomer who grew up in Minnesota.
Montana voters heavily favor former President Donald Trump over President Kamala Harris, 56 percent to 41 percent. Enthusiasm for Trump is even stronger among older voters, who prefer the Republicans to the Democrats, 60 percent0 to 37 percent.
In addition to Montana, the Senate seats in West Virginia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania could flip in Republicans’ favor.
Republicans are also challenging vulnerable incumbent Democrats in Michigan and Nevada.
