If the election were held today, Trump would secure 312 electoral votes compared to Biden winning 226, according to the latest data from Race to the White House (RWH), which was the most accurate forecaster in the nation in the 2022 election cycle. These numbers represent a significant shift from a year ago when Biden enjoyed a substantial lead over Trump. Recent weeks have seen a flurry of new polls, with some showing the candidates in a tight race and others indicating Biden ahead by various margins. Currently, national-level polling, which reflects popular vote totals, shows Biden and Trump nearly tied, with Biden at 46.1 percent and Trump at 46.2 percent. However, winning the national popular vote is not enough; a candidate must secure at least 270 of the 538 available Electoral College votes to claim the presidency. The RWH polling average includes all the most recent polls through June 23. Despite Trump's recent conviction on 34 counts of falsifying business records, which prior polls suggested could negatively affect his favorability, his standing and odds of winning the election remain largely unaffected. There is ongoing speculation about the impact third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. might have on the race, with analysts debating whether he would draw more votes away from Biden or Trump. Democrats, fearing Kennedy would siphon votes from Biden, continue to file lawsuits to keep him off the ballot. RWH’s current projections show that Kennedy would likely lower vote totals from both Biden and Trump. But even with Kennedy on the ballot, Trump still secures more than 300 electoral votes, if the election were held today. Over the past 45 days, Biden has gained traction in some swing states, but not enough to significantly impact any forecast about the election’s outcome. Last 45 days:Just a day before President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump face off in the earliest presidential debate in American history, the latest Electoral College polling reveals that Trump holds a commanding lead over Biden.
