Reaction from both major political parties was swift, with analysts, lawmakers, and political junkies of all stripes weighing in on how Republicans managed to oust Rep. George Santos, only to lose the same seat to Democrats, weakening their already razor thin, three-seat majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. Republicans voted on Dec. 1 to expel Santos from Congress following a report from the House Ethics Committee that concluded there was “substantial evidence” he knowingly caused his campaign committee to file false or incomplete reports with the Federal Election Commission, used campaign funds for personal purposes, and committed other ethical violations. Vying for the vacant seat were Suozzi (who previously held the position prior to Santos) and Republican challenger Mazi Pilip. While polling showed Suozzi leading by just 1 point a day before the election, after all the votes were counted, he won by nearly 8 points. According to election watchers, several factors played into the drubbing.Following last night’s victory of Democrat Tom Suozzi in New York’s special election, Republicans are pondering how another election victory slipped through their grasp.
Messaging on the recently stalled bipartisan border security bill was a motivating factor in yesterday’s election. Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), who was a top negotiator on the recent bipartisan border security bill, sent a memo to Democratic Party members advising that Suozzi’s victory was due in part to Republican opposition to the border deal. He urged his colleagues to put the issue front and center headed into the 2024 general election, which he said Democrats could lose if they don’t “go on offense” on this issue. “By voting against a tough, bipartisan border security bill, prompted solely by Donald Trump’s desire to keep the border chaotic ahead of the 2024 election, the GOP has presented Democrats with a unique, unprecedented opening to go on the offensive on border security and immigration, an issue that may decide the fall election,” he wrote. “We must not lose this opportunity. Our prospects for holding the White House and building majorities in the Senate and House likely depend on it.” Shortly after Suozzi’s win, Murphy publicly doubled down on the border deal now being a key election strategy, writing on X: “I didn’t spend 4 months negotiating the bipartisan border bill for political advantage. I wanted a result. But Republicans have handed us a winning issue and we will capitalize on it.” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) made similar remarks during a Feb. 14 press conference, stating, “MAGA Republicans handed Democrats a golden opportunity to talk about the border.” Many Republicans and conservatives make no secret of their view that the border proposal was ineffective. However, that messaging has either not been successfully reached or internalized by the electorate. CNN host Dana Bash told her audience that multiple voters she spoke with said they voted for Suozzi because Republicans failed to pass the border security deal. Democratic organization appears to have been excellent in this contest. The boots-on-the-ground operation for Suozzi was well-funded, well-organized, and helped ensure he returned to the seat. Suozzi had a ground operation run by the Hotel Trades Council that knocked on roughly 60,000 doors in the district, a campaign representative told POLITICO. Union volunteers logged more than 200,000 voter contacts in the race, according to the news organization. Suozzi also reportedly said part of what delivered a win was volunteers who spent hours participating in phone banks, calling voters and urging them to cast their ballot for him. Democrats spent nearly twice as much as their Republican counterparts on the race, dropping $14 million on advertising in New York’s 3rd congressional district — the most expensive media market in the U.S. Republicans spent $8.3 million. The House Majority PAC contributed more than $6 million on advertising, while the Congressional Leadership Fund, the GOP equivalent, spent more than $4 million.Border Security
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The suburban district is composed of college-educated, largely white (69 percent) voters with a median household income of $129,730. The GOP underperformed here, mainly due to a focus on cultural and other issues that don’t play well with suburban voters, according to writer Ryan Girdusky, who posted on X, “We lost high propensity (mostly college educated white voters). We gained lots of low propensity voters who don't show up.” He added that popular narratives — like singer Taylor Swift being a CIA asset, stolen elections, and that women should be arrested for receiving abortions — turned off suburban voters. He warned that without course correction, the GOP could suffer losses this fall in the general election. “It’s happening everywhere and could happen in November,” he said. “People need to be aware.”Republicans Still Struggle in the Suburbs
