Expert Predicts 'Food Wars' as Geopolitical Conflicts Escalate

The quest for energy has historically driven many of the world's greatest conflicts, with oil and other resources playing crucial roles in national security and economic stability.

However, experts now warn that the world is on the brink of "food wars" as geopolitical tensions push countries toward conflict over shortages.

"We have fought many wars over oil. We will fight bigger wars over food and water," said Sunny Verghese, chief executive of Olam Agri, a Singapore-based agricultural trading house. His remarks, first reported by the Financial Times, were made last week at the Redburn Atlantic and Rothschild consumer conference.

Verghese told the audience that government intervention was a primary driver of food price inflation.

Global food prices soared following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which exports 42 percent of the world’s sunflower oil, 8.9 percent of the world’s wheat, 9.7 percent of the world’s barley, and 16 percent of the world’s corn.

After the invasion, agricultural commodity traders reaped record profits, according to the Times, fueling allegations that they exacerbated food price inflation through profit-boosting mark-ups.

However, Verghese pointed out that food price inflation is partly due to government intervention. Trade barriers in response to the war "created an exaggerated demand-supply imbalance," he said.

The latest conflict between Russia and Ukraine has exacerbated a global food crisis that was already unfolding due to the world's response to the 2020 pandemic, which increased food insecurity worldwide.

Verghese noted that some countries have enacted protectionist policies, barring certain exports, in order to bolster their own reserves. This has led to higher demand and, consequently, higher prices elsewhere. "India, China, everybody has got buffer stocks," he said. "That is only exacerbating the global problem."

Imposing export restrictions “was precisely the wrong thing,” Verghese added. “You’re going to see more and more of that.”

Weather disasters and conflict continue to drive a global food crisis that resulted in more than 330 million people facing acute hunger last year.

The leaders of G7 nations met last week to take steps toward creating sustainable food systems for growing populations, according to the State Department, “adopting and embracing an approach that addresses foundational barriers to global food security.”