Less than a week after the debate, a confidential polling memo circulating among Democrats reveals a sharp decline in Biden’s support in key battleground states. The memo, obtained by Puck News, indicates that voter defections are so severe that Biden risks losing New Hampshire, Virginia, and New Mexico to Trump. The memo, drafted by OpenLabs — a progressive nonprofit that conducts polling and message-testing for Democratic groups — details these findings. Peter Hamby of Puck News reported that OpenLabs’ memos are highly regarded within Democratic circles for their data-driven approach and are typically shared with clients and strategists. The poll, conducted within 72 hours after the debate, shows that 40 percent of Biden’s 2020 voters now believe he should end his campaign. This is a significant shift from a May survey, which found only a quarter of Biden’s 2020 voters held that view. Among swing voters, Biden is also struggling: by a 2-to-1 margin, they believe he should leave the race.A growing number of Democrats are calling for President Joe Biden to end his 2024 re-election bid after his widely criticized performance in last week’s CNN debate against former President Donald Trump.
This is the current electoral map based on the recent Open Labs polling data. Insanity. pic.twitter.com/y4PTbcK9Fj Biden’s debate performance was so poorly received that in key battleground states he now polls behind other potential Democratic candidates, including Vice President Kamala Harris, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, California Governor Gavin Newsom, and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. “The most worrisome angle to all this is that Trump is now within striking distance in a variety of states that weren’t considered campaign battlegrounds last week,” Hamby wrote. “Biden is now only winning by a fraction of a point in Virginia, Maine, Minnesota, and New Mexico — and he’s now only winning Colorado by around 2 points.” The public disclosure of the OpenLabs memo comes as top officials within the Biden campaign suggest that Harris is the leading alternative should Biden choose to withdraw from the race. Biden has secured 3,894 delegates from state primaries, which are expected to formally nominate him during a virtual meeting this month before the Democratic National Convention in Chicago. If Biden steps down, insiders say these delegates would likely go to Harris. "All of the delegates are not just Joe Biden delegates, they are Kamala Harris delegates," Michael Trujillo, a Democratic strategist from California who worked for Hillary Clinton's campaigns in 2008 and 2016, told Reuters, adding, “she will have a sizable delegation and support in all 50 states on day one.”
— Mac (@GoodPoliticGuy) July 2, 2024
Passing over the first black and female vice president for another candidate would ignite backlash from black and women voters, which are critical to electoral success, democratic strategists told the new outlet.
